The National League is finally back, and with only one more sleep til it kicks off, I preview the opening fixtures, as well as making my predictions of the opening day scores.
Aldershot v Solihull
Playoff final runners up Solihull face a trip to the Recreation Ground in their first game of the season, and they’ll be keen to put last season’s disappointment quickly behind them. Blessed with potentially the most potent front 4 in the league, The Moors boast 1.46 goals per 90 minutes in that front four, a figure that would be even higher if loanee striker Alex Reid had been at his best (Andrew Dallas – 0.49, Josh Kelly – 0.44, Joe Sbarra – 0.41, Alex Reid – 0.12).
Saturday isn’t all about the visitors though, as hosts Aldershot have added some firepower of their own this summer, with new forwards Inih Effiong and Francis Amartey set to lead the line for the Shots. Molesley has a far better squad at his disposal this term, so he should be able make them far harder to beat than they were in the same fixture last season, where they lost 2-1.
I’m expecting an exciting opening affair, one where highly rated loanee keeper Luca Ashby-Hammond is sure to be tested. Whilst the hosts won’t be without their own moments, I feel Ardley’s men with have just too much quality. Aldershot scored just 19 goals at home last season, and I can’t see that changing much this time. I’ve gone for Solihull to keep a clean sheet, and the front 4 should add a couple of goals to seal an ultimately comfortable win.
Altrincham v Maidstone
Lancashire outfit Altrincham welcome new boys Maidstone in their opening fixture, and Phil Parkinson’s men will be confident of starting the season on the front foot.
Newcomers Maidstone Will fancy their chances too, and they are a side I feel many are overlooking. It’s perhaps fair to say they could have had a trickier return to the National League, especially on the road, and their vocal fan base will make their presence known at Moss Lane. On the pitch Maidstone have one of the players I’m most excited to see this season, 30 year old Spanish forward Joan Luque. The Spaniard has never really cut it at this level before, having mustered only 3 goals in 42 appearances, but at Maidstone he’s found a home where he can score consistently.
An opening game between two sides I rate very highly is always going to be exciting, and in Altrincham and Maidstone you have two sides that like to play the right way. Maidstone may underestimate their opponents, and having scored 80 goals last term they may feel confident to attack from the off. Altrincham are likely to do the same, a side who under Parkinson play some very atttactive football. This should all make for a cocktail of entertaining football; a fine way to kick off the campaign.
Barnet v Halifax Town
Dean Brennan’s side welcome Halifax Town on the opening day, with new boss Chris Millington eager to impress the Shaymen faithful. Barnet have been very active in the transfer market, most noticeably bringing in Torquay full back Ben Wynter, capitalising on the defender’s desire to move back to the capital. Brennan has been vocal about the lack of character in the dressing room, but Bees fans will be more optimistic this time round. The signing of rangy forward Nicke Kabamba has generated some fanfare, and despite scoring just 3 goals last term it’s easy to see why; Kabamba is a bullish forward, who uses his 6ft3 frame to shield the ball. If he can add goals this year he will be hard to stop.
Halifax are a new look side, having lost the majority of their side to EFL sides following their 4th place finish under old boss Pete Wild. New top man Millington has brought in a wealth of players, including 4 players from champions Stockport, showing their intentions to be promoted. Chief among these arrivals is full back Sam Minihan, who fell out of favour at Stockport last season, but still represents a more than dependable option in defence. Whether Halifax remain as defensively resolute this season is yet to be seen, and the style Millington looks to implement will be crucial; he will hope he can do so quickly in order to replicate last season.
Neither side possess a proven goalscorer, with Kambamba (Barnet) and Dieseruvwe (Halifax) managing just 10 goals between them last season, and as both have recruited strongly defensively, I have a feeling this could be a rather drab affair. Halifax had the best defence in the league last season, and I think Millington will want to avoid defeat in his first game, perhaps meaning he will set up cautiously initially. Brennan’s side may intend to start on the front foot, but with an almost totally new side, they may struggle to break down the Yorkshire side.
Dagenham v Gateshead
The Daggers are looking to finally make it into the top 7, having agonisingly missed out by just one point, and they could learn a thing or two from their visitors, Gateshead, who won promotion last season. McMahon has a great squad at his disposal, and whilst they haven’t added vast numbers of players, the ones they have are quality. Nikola Tavares and David Longe-King are sure to improve the defence, whilst Omar Mussa will look to pull the strings from midfield. Mussa will be tasked with unlocking the Gateshead back line, and with 0.71 smart passes per 90 and 0.68 deep completions, Mussa certainly possesses the quality to do so.
Gateshead are fascinating in as much that they have lost their two main goalscorers, and as such are far less equipped to play their attacking brand of football; for a side that scored 99 goals, but conceded 47, attacking seems to be in their DNA. Whether Williamson decides to shift his philosophy will dictate how the game will pan out. Midfield creator Greg Olley may find time and space hard to come by, as he will be competing with Dagenham’s Matt Robinson, an England C international who won 56.92% of his defensive duels. If Olley does manage to get on the ball, he will be key in any chance Gateshead have of winning points; he played 1.11 key passes per 90 and 2.16 smart passes per 90 showing his creative ability on the ball.
I can’t see this game going any other way than a victory for Daryl McMahon’s men. If Gateshead try to match Dagenham blow of blow, they simply will not have the quality to compete; if they had kept hold of duo Langstaff and Scott, they may have had a chance, but as they haven’t Dagenham would have too much. Similarly, if Gateshead decide to change tact and sit back against Dagenham, they don’t have the quality to frustrate them for long enough. Or perhaps more appropriately, Dagenham will have too much firepower; Paul McCallum is one of the favourites for the top scorer award, and I have a feeling he may start his campaign off on the right foot.
Dorking v Chesterfield
Stars of ‘A Bunch of Amateurs’, Dorking Wanderers are a club on the rise, but face an extremely stern test in welcoming Chesterfield on the opening day. Marc White and Paul Cook cut two contrasting figures, and despite the fact the pair have been managing for over 15 years each, their experience came at different ends of the footballing pyramid. White knows his side extremely well, and he himself says they always find a way to win. However, the game against Chesterfield may have come too soon for Dorking, who despite possessing lethal striker Alfie Rutherford, who was the most accurate shooter in non league last season (61.48% on target), may lack the necessary tools to beat a well oiled, and well funded side.
Chesterfield’s greatest strength is their squad depth, with Cook having a wealth of options to call upon from the bench. It will also make things extremely difficult for White to prepare for, when he doesn’t know for certain if Darren Oldaker or Armando Dobra will start, or if indeed both will be employed by Cook. Cook also has exciting forwards Gyasi and Uchegbulam to call upon from the bench, which will provide an injection of pace to stretch the tiring Dorking legs in the second half. Perhaps most menacing of all though is the likelihood that Kabongo Tshimanga will also make the bench, meaning Chesterfield can call upon the deadliest striker in the division, who is almost fully fit. Tshimanga had a whopping 0.28 xG per shot last season, and hit the target with 60% of his shots, showing how crucial he could be this campaign.
This is one of the tougher games to call, and it largely hinges on two main questions; how quickly will Dorking adapt to the league, and how quickly will ‘Cook ball’ be implemented? I don’t know the answer to either, but the general quality of Chesterfield’s squad should be too much for Dorking. It will be fascinating to watch two of the divisions sharpest shooters in action, and I wouldn’t put it past either to score, but confidence is high for the travelling Spireites, and I think they will overpower Dorking on their National League debut.
Notts v Maidenhead
Perhaps the easiest game to predict, at least in terms of how the game will play out, Meadow Lane sees the side with the highest possession from last season take on the team with the lowest. Notts had an average possession of 60% last season, whereas Maidenhead had just 41.3% of the ball on average, which leads me to believe the home side will dominate the game. The home side will be without Kyle Wootton and Cal Roberts, who both left this summer, but they still have plenty of quality to call upon, most notably Ruben Rodrigues, who had 26 goal involvements last season, the 3rd highest in the division. They’ve also added striker Cedwyn Scott to that front line, and if my thinking is correct, and Notts get plenty of chances due to dominating the ball, then Scott will be crucial; he hit the target with 59.14% of his shots, 4th highest in non-league.
The hosts will however need to be disciplined, as 4 of their 6 pre season goals came from set pieces. And as a side that have lost their main goal threat, talisman Josh Kelly, Maidenhead will rely on set pieces for the majority of their goal threat. Maidenhead only managed to muster 16 goals on the road last season, the fewest in the division, so goals will be hard to come by at Meadow Lane; Notts do have a notoriously soft underbelly when defending set pieces, so Alan Devonshire may gamble on that, and hope his side can sneak away with something from the game.
As a Notts fan myself, I’m always cautious in predicting a comfortable home win for the Magpies. But all the ingredients are there; Maidenhead are a side that will always struggle, due to their part time status, and they’ve lost their key man too. Notts on the other hand have recruited well, kept hold of their main man in Rodrigues, and they have a home crowd behind them who for the first time in a long time have a collective sense of positivity. Notts should have too much for Maidenhead, and whilst the visitors will look to frustrate, I’d back the Magpies to win by a fair margin.
Scunthorpe v Yeovil
It’s always tough to predict a side that have dropped down from League 2, and especially one that conceded 90 goals. That’s the case for Scunthorpe, who host a Yeovil side that finished 12th last season. For those of you that have read my season preview (in my pinned tweet) you will know I’ve tipped both Scunthorpe and Yeovil to struggle this season, so I’m not sure how high the quality will be at Glanford Park, but there’s hope and optimism amongst the Iron fan base, and they won’t think it possible to go worse than last season.
Scunthorpe will look to dominate midfield, with additions Jacob Butterfield and Elliot Whitehouse counting 434 EFL appearances between them. Central defender Andrew Boyce, from Eastleigh, is another experienced addition, and young full back Jai Rowe will be one of the few remaining faces from last season’s disaster. It’s hard to predict a completely new look side, and I’m sure they will improved upon the 45.2% average possession they had last term.
The visitors will be quietly optimistic they can cause an opening day upset, and Chris Hargreaves side will be looking to build upon their mid table finish. Yeovil drew more games than any other side last season (14) and this outcome wouldn’t surprise me this weekend. Yeovil will be heavily reliant on forward Tom Knowles, who despite only having an xG of 0.06 per shot, is definitely Yeovil’s main goal threat. A tough game to predict, the late kick off is one I don’t expect to see too many goals in; both sides will be cautious, and want to avoid a losing start to the campaign, so I’ve gone for a bore draw to open the curtain for BT.
Southend v Boreham Wood
As a neutral, I think this game has the potential to be the tastiest of the opening weekend. 2 sides which have legitimate chances of finishing inside the playoffs, the result of this game could have a bigger baring than most opening day fixtures. Perhaps to early to call this a promotion 6 pointer, but come the end of the season fans of either side may look back on this one as a crucial result. Home side Southend will be confident, as they had the 6th highest xG at home last season, and despite only scoring 45 goals, they won’t need many goals to beat Boreham Wood, as the visitors only scored more than once just 14 times. Southend have also added Altrincham attacker Dan Mooney, who netted 12 goals last term; an exciting attacking threat, Mooney takes 3.03 shots per 90, so expect to see him feature heavily here.
Boreham Wood are well known as a side who defend well, but struggle for goals, but head coach Luke Garrard has rectified this by adding goals, goals and more goals; Lee Ndlovu got 15 goals last season and Danny Elliot got 22, both strikers that Garrard has added. He’s also added some flair and ingenuity with the signings of Zak Brunt (1.52 smart passes per 90, 1st in NL) and Erico Sousa (0.66 key passes per 90), making Boreham Wood a much more interesting and exciting proposition this time round. Despite the positives, the Wood lost key man Jacob Mendy to Wrexham just one week before the season opener. Southend will look to exploit their left flank, which is sure to be in disarray following Mendy’s departure.
Based on last season, I would have predicted a bore draw for this one, but the landscape has changed at both clubs, and I think this will be an exciting affair. Garrard’s side will want to play more expansive football, but may not yet have found their groove, and similarly Southend’s recruits might not have settled yet. There will be individual quality galore, and I can’t separate the two sides.
Torquay United v Oldham Athletic
A game that has the potential to be lost in the shuffle, Torquay’s opener against newly relegated Oldham Athletic is a fixture I am certainly keeping an eye on. On the one hand you have a completely new side, in Oldham, following their relegation, and it will be fascinating to see how the visitors adapt. Oldham have an effectively whole new XI, with the standouts being the two new recruits from champions Stockport County, Lois Maynard and Liam Hogan, both 33. Maynard is an imposing midfielder, standing 6ft3, and with a success rate of 68.5% in his defensive duels, I’d expect Maynard to get stuck in. Similarly, Hogan is an imposing figure at the heart of defence, winning 70.64% of his own defensive duels, something which will hopefully make Oldham harder to beat than they were last season.
On the other side of the coin are established National League side Torquay, yet they are virtually a brand new outfit, as Gary Johnson has overseen a complete squad overhaul. Gone are the likes of Lewis, Little and Lemonheigh-Evans, and instead a more youthful approach has been favoured; 12 new faces are through the door at Plainmoor, with an average age of just 22.5. In fact, Torquay have the second lowest average age in the division, at 24.1, so it will be interesting to see how Johnson’s side fares. It’s hard to call what will happen for the Devon side, but they are in capable hands, and exciting, attacking football is almost a guarantee.
A battle between experience and youth, this game is a stab in the dark in terms of prediction, mainly due to the novelty factor of both sides. I’ve gone for home advantage to win out, and perhaps Oldham not being quite as ready for the drop down as they might expect. The general consensus at Oldham is that they will bounce straight back up; I think the reality may be a little more stark than that.
Wealdstone v Bromley
Perhaps an opening affair that won’t capture the imagination like some others, a local London derby on the opening day could be an exciting match nonetheless. Wealdstone are a side who have received mixed reviews heading into the season, with predictions ranging from a top half finish to finishing rock bottom. I can’t see the latter myself, as the addition of Max Kretzschmar alone is enough to keep them in the division. The exciting midfielder had an xG per shot of 0.2, meaning that with every 5th shot you would expect a goal, showing the quality of the man who made the switch from Woking. And he also finished 5th in the xG + xA charts, with 20.71, showing how dangerous he can be. It’s not all positive news for Wealdstone, as they go into the new season without top scorer Josh Umerah, who left for Hartlepool, and replacing his 17 goals will be tough, even if Kretzschmar has signed.
The other London side involved are Bromley, who will be optimistic they can build upon a historic FA Trophy win last season. A new contract for head coach Andy Woodman spells good things for the side, and they finally confirmed they have a keeper for the new season, as Reice Charles-Cook returned to the side. Whilst I believe he may just be a stop gap til they find a more established number 1, the biggest problem Bromley faced, not having a keeper, has been addressed, and Woodman’s side will be confident of starting with a win on the road. Perhaps most excitingly for Bromley is the chance to see new strike partnership Adam Marriott and Michael Cheek in action, a pairing that have a combined xG per shot of 0.42, the second highest of any strike partnership (behind Chesterfield). The pair guarantee goals, and if they can work together, you would expect to see them put Wealdstone to the sword.
Wealdstone are a side I’m going to keep a close eye on, and I think they will grow as the season progresses, but Bromley may catch them too early in the season to see their true potential. Bromley have plenty of attacking threat, and a defensive duo of Sowumni and Bush is good enough to keep Wealdstone out. I’d expect to see at least one of Marriott or Cheek to be on the scoresheet, if not both.
Wrexham v Eastleigh
Title favourites Wrexham face one of the easier opening games, as they welcome southern outfit Eastleigh to Wales. Eastleigh finished 17 places below Wrexham last season, and should pose too much of a threat to the Dragons, and even if they do take a surprise lead, they won 1.53 points per game after conceding first. Wrexham also scored 91 goals last season, the most in the division, and had Palmer arrived earlier than January this might have been even more. You’d expect them to get off to a flying start tomorrow, and with strikers like Mullin (28 goals) and Palmer (15 goals), and the addition of Elliot Lee in behind, it’s easy to see why the Welsh side are so well backed.
Eastleigh may not, on paper at least, pose much of a threat to Wrexham, but they do have some good players, and individual talent alone may spring a surprise or two. Jake Hesketh is a crafty operator in midfield, Danny Whitehall has goals in him, and new addition Charlie Carter adds creativity in behind the forwards. They’ve also secured the services of Christian Maghoma, this time on a permanent deal, but he will be a busy man on Saturday as he tries to deal with Wrexham’s attackers. Eastleigh last season were appalling on the road, picking up the 3rd fewest points away from home (Weymouth and Dover had fewer), and they failed to score in 55% of away matches, the highest in the league. Eastleigh will be looking to turn fortunes around on the road this year, but they would have hoped for an easier opening away fixture to prove this change.
I can only see this game going one way; Wrexham dominance from start to finish. Wrexham should win, and win handily at that. Wrexham are a side that have goals all over the pitch, and in great abundance, and Eastleigh notoriously struggle on the road. I’d love to say I see a shock or a twist here or there, but how can you bet against Wrexham at home? You simply can’t, and a comfortable opening day win for Parkinson’s men will be pleasing for Dragons fans.
York City v Woking
Despite the fact that York finished on the fewest points of the newly promoted sides, they have been the most widely tipped to do well of those that have joined the National League from the divisions below. They face a side in Woking who have equal amounts of optimism around them, and as such this opening affair between two sides heavily tipped as dark horses is finely balanced. I believe one or the other will do well this season, not both, and this game may be an early indication of which side will kick on and do well this season. York have added 17 faces, an extremely high total, and there’s no denying the quality they possess. Scott Boden, Lenell John-Lewis, Manny Duku, Alex Whittle, Ryan Fallowfield and Mitch Hancox are all names that readers will be familiar with, but the main question marks that remain are whether a squad with this many new faces can gel quickly. That remains to be seen, as does Askey’s preferred 11, and they therefore represent an unknown commodity on the opening day.
The Cards have also added numbers this summer, as they look to build upon their 15th placed finished. Despite losing Kretzschmar and Inih Effiong, they look better placed to score goals this time round, with new signing Padraig Amond netting 30 goals the last time he played at this level. They also looked far too easy to beat last season, so defensive recruits Sid Nelson and Scott Cuthbert seem positive additions. Woking are another side who won’t be easy to predict, but one thing is for certain; midfielder Rohan Ince will dominate the midfield. A 6ft3 central midfielder with one of the best ranges of passing in the league, Ince won 63.48% of his defensive duels and 59.3% of his aerial ones, showing the midfielder will be able to break up the play when needed. He also isn’t afraid to get stuck in, with 6.59 defensive duels per 90 showing how active he is in midfield.
A tough game to call for a variety of reasons, both York and Woking are sides with a lot of potential this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either nick a playoff spot, and a good start will be crucial. I think both will want to avoid a loss on the opening day, and this will dictate the course of play. Perhaps a cagey opening affair, one which may flatter to deceive, without ever really catching fire. A tight game, and yes, I’m sitting on the fence on this one.
xN: Expected Nonsense 